Delays in US Arms Deliveries to Taiwan: A Complex Political Landscape

On March 28, 2025, Lockheed Martin held a ceremony at its F-16 production facility in Greenville, South Carolina, to mark the handover of two F-16V Block 70 jets to Taiwan. This event was significant as it was the first time Taiwan received new jets from the U.S. since 1992, a period following George H. W. Bush's authorization of 150 F-16 A/B jets for the island. The ceremony featured Taiwan's Defense Minister and a representative from its U.S. office, though notable was the absence of high-ranking U.S. defense officials, which underlines the sensitive diplomatic status Taiwan holds in international relations.

The F-16V jets, procured under the “Peace Phoenix Soaring” program, represent a much-needed upgrade for Taiwan’s Air Force. Previous aircraft were stripped of advanced capabilities, and the initial jets provided were direly outdated. After a recent U.S. upgrade program known as “Peace Phoenix Rising,” Taiwan’s older F-16s were brought to the F-16V standard; however, these airframes are now over 30 years old, rendering them less competitive against newer models.

Initially, Taiwan planned to purchase 66 new F-16Vs at an estimated cost of nearly $8 billion, with expectations to receive all jets by 2026. However, production delays have plagued the program, with only the first two jets delivered to date. Various factors have been cited for these delays, including supply chain difficulties and production complications.

Surprisingly, the first two jets, which finally departed Greenville in March 2026—17 months after the rollout—had to return to Hickam Airfield in Hawaii before reaching Taiwan, a baffling setback that remains unexplained. This situation is indicative of the broader pattern of delays affecting arms sales to Taiwan.

According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, these recurring delays in fulfilling arms sales to Taiwan are primarily due to concerns over the availability of military production in the U.S. Still, this rationale doesn't hold when examining the manufacturing capabilities at Lockheed’s Greenville facility, where jets for other international customers—like Bahrain and Bulgaria—have been produced without significant delays.

As the US fulfills orders for other global customers without hiccups, Taiwan’s military modernization efforts are stymied. Taiwan is currently facing an extensive backlog of orders comprising essential defense systems. High-priority equipment, such as F-16 IRST systems, advanced reconnaissance pods, and air-to-air missiles, remains undelivered, adding to the tension in the region.

Compounding these issues, equipment sent to Taiwan has reportedly arrived in unserviceable conditions. Recent events saw the U.S. send moldy body armor and malfunctioning arms to Taiwan, raising questions about the reliability of these military supplies.

Meanwhile, as weapon supply chains remain stretched due to demands from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Taiwan's defense situation becomes more precarious. The island's security is increasingly threatened, with China conducting exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan, demonstrating its military might and intent in the region.

The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 obliges the United States to provide necessary defense articles, yet political considerations play a significant role in the ongoing arms sales. Each administration finds ways to interpret this mandate, often leading to alterations in what is sold and the timing of deliveries.

Tensions between the U.S. and China complicate U.S. armament strategies. Beijing’s harsh responses to any arms sales to Taiwan escalate the situation further. On top of this, America's commitments in the Middle East and Ukraine consume resources, often leaving Taiwan at a disadvantage in prioritization.

For instance, the U.S. recently deployed the USS George Washington aircraft carrier away from the Indo-Pacific, an area deemed crucial for maintaining stability in East Asia, including Taiwan. Such actions may reflect an attempt to ease tensions with China, but ironically, they could undermine Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.

This week’s meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. officials underscores the ongoing struggle to balance diplomatic relations with the need to support Taiwan. As the U.S. seeks to stabilize interactions with China, it paradoxically makes further arms deliveries to Taiwan less certain, leaving the island vulnerable.

In the face of a looming threat, if Taiwan cannot resist a direct attack, the United States will face significant challenges in extending support when it's most needed. The interplay of political will and military capability has never been more critical in safeguarding Taiwan’s future and, by extension, regional stability.

Stephen Bryen is a former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense and contributes insights on international security through various platforms.